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NUCOR CORP (NUE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered $7.08B net sales and $1.22 diluted EPS; EBITDA was $751M. Results exceeded the midpoint of management’s December guidance by ~$0.62 EPS, driven ~2/3 by stronger operations (shipments and margins) and ~1/3 by discrete corporate/admin/tax items .
  • Segment mix: steel mills EBT fell on lower prices/volumes; steel products remained resilient; raw materials improved on higher DRI production and lower scrap processing costs .
  • Outlook: management expects Q1 2025 pre-tax earnings roughly similar to Q4, but net earnings flat to slightly lower due to higher corporate/admin/tax items; mills and products similar QoQ, raw materials lower .
  • Capital return and balance sheet: dividend raised to $0.55 (52 consecutive annual increases), ~$443M returned in Q4 (2.1M shares repurchased); $4.14B cash and short-term investments at year-end; $1.11B repurchase authorization remaining .
  • Potential stock catalysts: upside from beat vs guidance and improving order/backlog tone (joist/deck backlogs stable; total backlog tons +5% QoQ exiting Q4), while tariff/fair-trade actions and Brandenburg plate ramp (multi‑year high backlog) could support pricing/mix into 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Stronger-than-expected operations in December: higher shipments and better margins versus guidance; discrete corporate/admin/tax items provided additional upside; Q4 EPS of $1.22 beat December guidance midpoint by ~$0.62 .
    • Steel products resilience with pretax earnings of $329M; raw materials segment improved to $57M pretax on 20% QoQ DRI production increase and lower operating costs .
    • Safety and capital discipline: 2024 safest year in company history; $2.74B returned to shareholders in 2024; $4.14B cash/ST investments and undrawn $1.75B revolver at 12/31/24 .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Price pressure and volumes hit steel mills: mills pretax down ~45% QoQ to $169M; realized pricing and metal margins declined, with about half of the mills’ decline from sheet .
    • Net sales and pricing down: Q4 net sales fell 5% QoQ and 8% YoY; average sales price per ton down 3% QoQ and 10% YoY .
    • Ongoing start-up costs: pre-tax, pre-operating and start-up costs were ~$164M in Q4 (vs $168M in Q3) and $594M for 2024 as large projects ramp, pressuring near-term earnings .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$7.705 $7.444 $7.076
Net Earnings Attributable to Nucor ($USD Millions)$785 $249.9 $287
Diluted EPS ($)$3.16 $1.05 $1.22
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$1,360 $869 $751

Segment pretax earnings (EBT) ($USD Millions)

SegmentQ4 2023Q3 2024 (Adj)Q4 2024
Steel Mills$588 $309 $169
Steel Products$656 $354 (ex-impairment) $329
Raw Materials$(14) $17 (ex-impairment) $57
Corporate/Elims$(152) $(168) $(165)
Total$1,078 $512 (Adj) $390

Key KPIs

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Shipments to outside customers (k tons)5,934 6,196 6,058
Steel mills shipments (k tons)5,513 5,719 5,650
Steel mills shipments to internal (% of mills)20% 19% 19%
Operating rate (mills)74% 75% 74%
Avg scrap & substitute cost ($/gross ton)$397 $378 $381
Share repurchases (Qtr)—~2.5M sh @ $156.07 avg ~2.1M sh @ $149.81 avg

Notes:

  • Q3 2024 adjusted segment figures exclude non-cash impairments ($83M raw materials, $40M steel products) .
  • Q4 2024 EBITDA reconciliation provided in Exhibit tables .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent/ActualChange
Diluted EPSQ4 2024$0.55–$0.65 (Dec 16 guidance) $1.22 actual Beat vs guidance
Steel Mills EBT (direction)Q1 2025—Similar to Q4 2024 Maintained (flat)
Steel Products EBT (direction)Q1 2025—Similar to Q4 2024 Maintained (flat)
Raw Materials EBT (direction)Q1 2025—Lower vs Q4 2024 Lowered
Corporate/Admin/TaxQ1 2025—Higher vs Q4 2024; net earnings flat to slightly lower Headwind
2025 CapexFY 2025—~ $3.0B; ~2/3 growth (WV sheet largest) New detail
DividendOngoing$0.54 prior $0.55 per share (Dec 2024; 52nd consecutive increase) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ-2 (Q2’24)Q-1 (Q3’24)Current (Q4’24)Trend
Trade/tariffs, fair tradeCalled for tighter enforcement; Mexico/Canada import surge; support Leveling the Playing Field Act 2.0 Impairments and outlook framed by price pressure/imports Expect stronger 232 enforcement under new admin; replace quotas with tariffs; broaden to downstream; supportive macro Increasingly constructive/policy tailwind
Capex/projects (WV sheet, towers)WV late 2026 start; micro mill and tower plants 2025; doubling through-cycle earnings target Continued execution amid start-up costs 2025E capex ~$3B; WV ~1/3 through construction; multiple galv/coating projects progressing On track; spend elevated
End-market demand/backlogsHealthy in data centers, semis, infra; macro softer but stable Guided Q4 down on pricing/margins Joist/deck backlogs stable; total backlog tons +5% QoQ; modest 1H’25 demand growth, stronger 2H Stabilizing to improving
Plate/BrandenburgSoftness from imports but long-term constructive; capability ramp —Q4 plate price hike; Brandenburg production up >100% QoQ, cost/ton -30%; EBITDA positive by mid-2025; backlog multi‑year highs Positive ramp/profitability visibility
Raw materials/DRI, scrap strategyLow-copper shred strategy; ~2/3 metallics under control long term Scrap cost moderation DRI production +20% QoQ; raw materials EBT improved; 2025 raw materials expected lower vs Q4 Mixed near term; strategy intact
Capital returnsStrong returns; balanced allocation Buybacks/dividends continued Policy to return ≥40% of annual net earnings; 2024 returns ~$2.74B Sustained commitment

Management Commentary

  • “We earned $1.22 per share in the fourth quarter… EBITDA of $751 million for the quarter… balance sheet remains quite strong with $4.1 billion of cash at year-end.”
  • “Earnings for the fourth quarter exceeded the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance range by about $0.62… stronger-than-expected operating performance accounted for about 2/3… favorable corporate, administrative, and discrete tax items accounted for the rest.”
  • “We expect earnings in the steel mills and steel products segments to be similar in the first quarter of 2025… raw materials… to decrease… higher corporate, administrative and tax impacts… may result in lower net earnings overall.”
  • “We’re nearly 40% of the way through the construction phase [WV sheet mill] and remain on track to commission the mill by the end of next year [2026].”
  • On trade: “Country exemptions and quota arrangements… should be replaced with tariffs… pass the Leveling the Playing Field Act 2.0 quickly.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital returns/payout: Management reiterated a minimum 40% payout target; 2024’s >100% was due to excess liquidity; buyback pacing flexes with cash needs .
  • Tariffs exposure: Limited direct negative impact from potential Mexico slab tariffs given internal flexibility; NJSM supply focused on high value-added automotive components .
  • Plate pricing and Brandenburg: Lean inventories and strong backlogs supported a $60/ton plate price increase; Brandenburg production up >100% QoQ, conversion cost/ton -30%, aiming for consistent EBITDA positive by mid‑2025 .
  • Towers platform: EBITDA potential raised to at least ~$150M annually with national footprint and automation .
  • Rebar supply: Company remains confident new domestic capacity will be absorbed by infrastructure/reshoring and import displacement; timing of Pacific Northwest rebar micro mill is pacing capital, not market concerns .
  • Near-term outlook: Backlog tons +5% QoQ; mills/products similar QoQ; raw materials lower; discrete Q4 benefits won’t recur, making Q1 net slightly lower .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at the time of analysis due to API limits; therefore, an estimates comparison cannot be provided here. Values from S&P Global could not be retrieved at this time.
  • Management beat its own December EPS guidance of $0.55–$0.65 by ~$0.57–$0.67 ($1.22 actual), attributing ~2/3 of the beat to operating outperformance and ~1/3 to discrete corporate/admin/tax items .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 quality beat vs guidance with operational upside and discrete items; near-term (Q1) setup is flattish on pre-tax but slightly lower net given nonrecurring corporate/tax tailwinds in Q4 .
  • Downstream remains a profit anchor (steel products EBT $329M) with stable backlogs into Q2; this should cushion mills’ margin volatility as pricing resets .
  • Plate cycle could improve: lean inventories, import risk mitigation, and Brandenburg ramp (multi‑year high backlog) point to rising capability/mix and mid‑2025 EBITDA inflection .
  • Policy tailwinds: heightened emphasis on fair-trade enforcement (potentially broader tariffs, fewer quotas) is a structural positive for domestic pricing and utilization .
  • Watch capital deployment: 2025 capex ~$3B (2/3 growth) is funding high‑return, value‑added projects (WV sheet, coating/galv lines, towers) with clear milestones; start-up costs remain a 1H headwind .
  • Capital returns remain robust with a ≥40% payout target and dividend raised to $0.55 (52 consecutive annual increases), supported by $4.14B cash/ST investments and strong IG balance sheet .
  • Trading setup: positive narrative on guidance beat, backlog growth, and tariff rhetoric vs near-term EPS drag from Q4 discrete items rolling off—watch for incremental pricing actions (plate), joist/deck backlog conversion, and any policy changes that tighten import flows .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Tonnage details, earnings statements, and balance sheet/cash flow excerpts for Q4 2024 are provided in the press release exhibits (Exhibit 99.1), including shipments by product and EBITDA reconciliations .
  • Q3 2024 and Q2 2024 press releases provide sequential trend context on shipments, pricing, start-up costs, and EBITDA .